What We Know Before Maine and What We Will Learn

This Saturday marks the ninth nominating contest for the Republicans. The Maine caucus follows a major coup this past Tuesday for Rick Santorum, when he swept the contests in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota. Prior to Tuesday, Santorum had not even been competitive in a contest since the Iowa caucus. However, since Missouri will not allocate any of their delegates until their caucus on March 17^th, Santorum only narrowed Mitt Romney’s lead to 112 to 72. Nevertheless, Santorum overtook Newt Gingrich as the number two candidate for the Republican nomination. Meanwhile, Ron Paul remains far behind the other candidates, as he has only acquired nine delegates thus far. Despite this reality, Paul remains confident heading into the Maine caucus despite the fact that it is in Mitt Romney’s political backyard. Overall, the contest remains wide open, with the leading candidate still more than 1,000 delegates away from securing the nomination.

With his sudden and somewhat surprising victories last night in Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota, Rick Santorum reestablished himself as leading anti-Romney candidate within the Republican Party. Santorum won each contest by decisive margins, with his best performance in Missouri at 55.2% and his worst at 40% in Colorado. It is important to remember that Newt Gingrich was not on the ballot in Missouri, making that primary a three-way contest. Santorum beat Ron Paul by 17.6 percentage points in Minnesota, Mitt Romney by five points in Colorado and Mitt Romney by 29.9 points in Missouri. It is worth noting that his largest margin of victory did not actually count toward his delegate count, which seems to be the story of this primary season. Nevertheless, Tuesday’s results make it clear that Rick Santorum possesses the most plausible path to the Republican nomination other than Mitt Romney, according to Sarah Jaffe of Alternet. She correctly observes that Santorum’s brand social conservatism plays incredibly well in the Midwest. Santorum couches every issue in the language of religion and morality, which speaks directly to Midwestern conservatives, as evidenced by his only victories coming in Iowa, Colorado, Missouri and Minnesota. Despite being Catholic, Santorum’s economic message strongly emphasizes the Protestant work ethic and rugged individualism, which are catnip for conservatives in Middle America.

All of that being said, Maine is certainly not the Midwest in terms of either geography or politics. If the results of the New Hampshire primary are any indication, Mitt Romney will likely win decisively in the Maine caucus this Saturday. In the New Hampshire primary Mitt Romney received 39.28% of the vote compared to Santorum’s 9.43% despite his momentum from a strong finish in Iowa. This is due primarily to the fact that Northeastern Republicans tend to be considerably more moderate than their counterparts in the South and Midwest, Mitt Romney being case in point. In addition, Ron Paul tends to perform well in caucuses as opposed to primaries. This is due in no small part to the passion of his followers and the fact that caucuses tend to be less well-attended than primaries. The more moderate political climate of the Northeast does seem to bode well for Dr. Paul compared to the more staunchly conservative Midwest and South. However, these potential advantages did not secure a victory for Dr. Paul in the New Hampshire primary, given most Republicans’ objections to Paul's non-militaristic foreign policy views and relatively liberal social views, particularly with respect to drug legalization. Despite disappointing finishes on Tuesday and a perceived advantage for Dr. Paul, Mitt Romney will likely win the Maine caucus this Saturday.

Romney’s version of moderate conservatism plays very well in the Northeast, as evidenced by his decisive, though slightly disappointing win in New Hampshire. Furthermore, Romney still holds two important advantages over the other candidates: he is incredibly well-funded and has the strongest national political organization. According to recent Federal Election Commission filings, the Super PAC supporting Romney recently took in $18 million from just 199 donors. When combined with his other fundraising efforts and his personal wealth of $250 million, Mitt Romney is by far the best-funded candidate on the Republican side. According to opensecrets.org, Romney has raised $56,465,509 thus far, surpassed only by President Obama who has raised $125,225,410. Furthermore, Romney has the support of many figures within the Republican establishment and has a well-organized national campaign structure from his last bid for the Republican nomination in 2008. While the other candidates might have aspects that appeal to Republican voters, none of them possesses the tools that Mitt Romney does. Romney’s greatest handicap as a candidate is when he, you know, talks. His speeches are stiff and painfully awkward. He also has the unfortunate tendency to provide his opponents with quotes that reflect his disconnect with regular Americans. The longer the nomination process continues, the more Mitt Romney must speak in public and further harm his own candidacy.

Ultimately, Mitt Romney will likely win the Maine caucus and the Republican nomination. However, this is not written in stone, as many in the media suggest. Although he currently leads in the delegate count, he is still 1,032 delegates from securing the nomination. On the other hand, some in the media express dismay that Mitt Romney has not yet secured the nomination. However, even if he had won every single delegate allocated thus far, he would still be 925 delegates short of the necessary 1,144. The only thing we learned from Tuesday’s contests is that very conservative Republicans are not ready to vote for Mitt Romney, which we already knew. The only thing we will learn from Saturday is that Mitt Romney’s power base is in the Northeast, which we already knew. Whether Republicans like it or not, Mitt Romney will likely be the Republican nominee. Tuesday only provides further evidence for a conservative challenge to Mitt Romney during the general election. However, the challenger would probably be Newt Gingrich, given the fact that he is already talking about his second term despite winning only one primary. Gingrich possesses the requisite combination of conservative bona fides and hubris for such a run, not to mention the personal animosity toward Mitt Romney. Should someone other than Romney win, that person will probably face a moderate challenge. Whatever happens going forward, it will certainly be interesting.